Defu Technology (301511) — In-Depth Research Report
Copper-Foil Leader; Ongoing Breakthroughs in High-End Products
Key Data Snapshot
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | 301511.SZ |
| Rating | Accumulate / Outperform (initial) |
| Report date | March 2026 |
Earnings Forecast & Valuation
| Metric | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (RMB mn) | 6,531 | 7,805 | 10,390 | 12,150 | 13,896 |
| Growth (%) | 2.4% | 19.5% | 33.1% | 16.9% | 14.4% |
| Net profit to parent (RMB mn) | 133 | -245 | 112 | 334 | 450 |
| Growth (%) | -73.7% | -284.8% | 145.7% | 198.0% | 82.9% |
| EPS (RMB) | 0.2 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| P/E | 116.8 | -63.2 | 138.3 | 46.4 | 25.4 |
| P/B | 2.4 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 3.9 | 1.5 |
Investment Thesis
I. Domestic copper-foil leader; scale edge
Defu is a leading Chinese electrodeposited copper foil producer, focused on Li-battery foil and CCL / PCB foil R&D, production, and sales. Products serve NEV power & storage batteries, consumer electronics, and PCBs.
II. High-end product progress
Battery foil:
- Thinner gauges (4.5 μm, 4 μm) R&D and ramp
- High-tensile / high-elongation grades advancing
CCL / PCB foil:
- RF / high-speed grades improving
- Positioned for 5G, AI servers, and other premium apps
III. Capacity & cost
- Ongoing expansion to defend share
- Scale and process improvement for unit cost
- Procurement leverage on inputs
IV. Downstream demand
NEVs: battery demand; more foil per pack trend
Storage: rapid volume, new growth pillar
PCB: 5G infrastructure; AI servers lift high-end foil demand
Financial Analysis
Main ratios
| Metric | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profitability | |||||
| Gross margin | 7.6% | 2.1% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 10.3% |
| Net margin | 1.7% | -4.3% | 1.9% | 4.5% | 6.5% |
| ROE | 3.1% | -6.1% | 2.7% | 7.7% | 10.3% |
| ROA | 0.9% | -1.6% | 1.3% | 3.6% | 5.8% |
| Solvency | |||||
| Debt-to-assets | — | — | — | — | — |
| Efficiency | |||||
| Asset turnover | — | — | — | — | — |
Risks
- Copper price volatility
- Demand below expectations
- Industry competition
- Capacity ramp delays
Source: Guojin Securities Research
