Han’s CNC (301200) — Comment on 2025 Annual Results
25Q4 Momentum Strong QoQ; AI PCB Capex Drives High Growth
Key Data Snapshot
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | 301200.SZ |
| Rating | Buy (maintain) |
| Report date | March 31, 2026 |
| Closing price | RMB 176.17 |
| 52-week low / high | RMB 31.62 / 183.89 |
| P/B | 12.35x |
| Free-float market cap | RMB 74.235 billion |
| Total market cap | RMB 85.183 billion |
| Book value per share (LF) | RMB 14.27 |
| Debt-to-assets (LF) | 42.68% |
| Total shares | 483.53 million |
| Free-float A-shares | 421.38 million |
Earnings Forecast & Valuation
| Metric | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (RMB mn) | 3,343 | 5,773 | 9,931 | 14,558 | 18,825 |
| YoY (%) | 104.56 | 72.68 | 72.03 | 46.58 | 29.31 |
| Net profit to parent (RMB mn) | 301.18 | 824.27 | 1,535.97 | 2,494.74 | 3,142.72 |
| YoY (%) | 122.20 | 173.68 | 86.34 | 62.42 | 25.97 |
| EPS — fully diluted (RMB) | 0.62 | 1.70 | 3.18 | 5.16 | 6.50 |
| P/E | 282.83 | 103.34 | 55.46 | 34.15 | 27.10 |
Investment Thesis
I. Rapid growth; drilling & inspection as twin engines
Full-year 2025:
- Revenue: RMB 5.773 billion, +72.68% YoY
- Net profit to parent: RMB 824 million, +174% YoY
- Recurring net profit: RMB 821 million, +291% YoY
2025 Q4:
- Revenue: RMB 1.870 billion, +87.10% YoY
- Net profit to parent: RMB 333 million, +239% YoY
- Recurring net profit: RMB 345 million, +738% YoY
By segment (2025):
| Segment | Revenue (RMB bn) | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Drilling | 41.67 | +98% |
| Inspection | 5.33 | +95% |
| Exposure | 3.22 | -5% |
| Routing / forming | 2.70 | +6% |
| Lamination assist | 1.19 | +45% |
| Press / lamination | 0.18 | +86% |
II. Profitability improving quarter by quarter
2025 full year:
- Gross margin: 35.12%, +7.01 ppt YoY
- Net margin: 14.18%, +5.21 ppt YoY
2025 Q4:
- Gross margin: 42.20%, +13.81 ppt YoY, +8.21 ppt QoQ
- Net margin: 17.66%, +7.99 ppt YoY, +2.76 ppt QoQ
Higher mix of high-margin products such as CCD back-drilling drives sequential margin expansion.
Period expenses (2025):
- Total: 18.33%, -1.20 ppt YoY
- Sales 5.39% (-0.48 ppt); admin 4.99% (-0.87 ppt); R&D 7.93% (-0.05 ppt); finance +0.20%
III. Top PCB fabs ramping; leader benefits
Examples:
- Wus Printed Circuit (002463) — Changzhou USD 300 mn; Kunshan RMB 3.3 bn; Kunshan Wus Microelectronics RMB 5.5 bn
- Zhen Ding (4958.TW / 002938) — Thailand +RMB 4.3 bn (Dec 2025); Huai’an Qending RMB 11 bn plan (Mar 2026)
Large PCB capex plans support drilling equipment demand; the company’s leadership position should capture the cycle.
IV. Ultrafast laser drilling aligned with technology roadmap
Trends:
- Higher Dk/Df drives Q-glass and advanced materials
- 1.6T optical modules: ~50 μm vias, mSAP processing
Company:
- Early ultrafast laser drill portfolio
- Better than CO₂ laser on high-melting Q-glass and micro-vias
- Potential next-gen mainstream; technology viewed as industry-leading
Financial Summary
Balance sheet (RMB mn)
| Item | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current assets | 8,241 | 11,721 | 16,540 | 21,983 |
| Non-current assets | 2,374 | 2,658 | 2,887 | 3,053 |
| Total assets | 10,615 | 14,379 | 19,427 | 25,036 |
| Current liabilities | 4,299 | 6,466 | 8,954 | 11,360 |
| Non-current liabilities | 231 | 251 | 271 | 291 |
| Total liabilities | 4,530 | 6,717 | 9,225 | 11,651 |
| Equity to parent | 6,071 | 7,645 | 10,180 | 13,363 |
Key metrics
| Metric | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin (%) | 35.12 | 35.02 | 35.95 | 35.63 |
| Net margin to parent (%) | 14.28 | 15.47 | 17.14 | 16.69 |
| Revenue growth (%) | 72.68 | 72.03 | 46.58 | 29.31 |
| NP growth to parent (%) | 173.68 | 86.34 | 62.42 | 25.97 |
| ROIC (%) | 14.53 | 20.34 | 26.19 | 25.50 |
| ROE diluted (%) | 13.58 | 20.09 | 24.51 | 23.52 |
| Debt-to-assets (%) | 42.68 | 46.71 | 47.49 | 46.54 |
Risks
- Slower-than-expected AI / compute infrastructure build
- PCB capacity additions behind schedule
- Macroeconomic risk
Source: Soochow Securities Research
