Shenzhen Fastprint (002436.SZ) — Comment on 2025 Earnings Preview
Return to Profit; AI-Driven IC Substrate Price Upcycle Continues
Key Data Snapshot
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | 002436.SZ |
| Rating | Recommended / Maintain |
| Report date | February 9, 2026 |
| 52-week price range | RMB 25.87 – 10.13 |
| Total market cap | RMB 37.72 billion |
| Free-float market cap | RMB 33.52 billion |
| Total / free-float shares | 1,699.67 / 1,699.67 million |
| 52-week avg. daily turnover | 6.98% |
Earnings Forecast & Valuation
| Metric | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (RMB mn) | 5,359.92 | 5,817.32 | 6,861.88 | 8,498.96 | 10,133.40 |
| Growth (%) | 0.11% | 8.53% | 17.96% | 23.86% | 19.23% |
| Net profit to parent (RMB mn) | 211.21 | -198.29 | 132.04 | 432.70 | 680.70 |
| Growth (%) | -59.82% | -193.88% | 166.59% | 227.72% | 57.31% |
| ROE (%) | 3.96% | -4.02% | 2.61% | 7.98% | 11.32% |
| EPS (RMB) | 0.12 | -0.12 | 0.08 | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| P/E | 170.36 | -181.46 | 272.52 | 83.16 | 52.86 |
| P/B | 6.79 | 7.34 | 7.17 | 6.68 | 6.02 |
Investment Thesis
I. 2025 earnings preview: sharp swing to profit
Preview (Jan 30, 2026):
- Net profit to parent expected: RMB 132–140 million
- Recurring net profit: RMB 138–146 million
- Material return to profitability
II. Core profitability recovery
Drivers:
- Industry recovery; revenue grows steadily
- Profit mainly affected by:
Guangzhou Fastprint Semiconductor — FCBGA substrate business:
- Not yet at high-volume production; still a drag
- Full-year opex ~RMB 660 million
- 2025 sample orders up sharply YoY
Yixing Silicon Valley Electronics — high-layer PCB:
- Weak mix; full-year loss ~RMB 100 million
- Loss narrowed each quarter
- Q4 near break-even
III. AI lifts substrate demand; upstream prices rise
IC substrate pricing:
- BT substrates led the increase (smartphones, etc.)
- ABF substrates followed (CPU/GPU, etc.)
- Supply–demand gap ~21%
- Prices up ~38% in a year
- Tightness worsening month by month
Drivers:
- High-end computing & AI demand
- Strong substrate demand momentum
- Supply cannot keep pace; gap widening
- Capacity lags AI/HPC-driven demand
Fastprint’s scarcity:
Among domestic players with both BT and ABF exposure, capacity and technology are comparatively scarce in this cycle.
IV. IC substrate market outlook
Global market:
- 2025: USD 16.69 billion
- 2026E: USD 18.44 billion
- 2035E: USD 45.34 billion
- 2026–2035 CAGR: 10.51%
Technology:
- High-density wiring (line width ≤10 μm)
- High-precision manufacturing
- High thermal conductivity (≥5 W/m·K)
AI chips:
- Compute density roughly doubles every 18 months (Moore’s-law style)
- Raises bar for IC substrates
Competitive strengths
Segments:
- PCBs
- Semiconductor test boards
- IC packaging substrates (BT + ABF)
Recognition:
- National high-tech enterprise
- National IP demonstration enterprise
- Guangdong innovative enterprise
- Three provincial R&D platforms
- One national major science & technology project (02 special)
Risks
- Slower downstream demand
- Business expansion below expectations
- Escalating trade friction
Source: DX Securities (Dongxing) Research
