Zhen Ding Technology (002938.SZ) — AI “Cloud–Device” Synergy; Global Capacity Accelerates Growth
Source: Kaiyuan Securities | Date: April 2, 2026 | Rating: Buy (maintain)
Key Data Snapshot
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Closing price | RMB 53.61 |
| Market cap | 1,242.71 (RMB 100 mn) |
| Free-float market cap | 1,238.09 (RMB 100 mn) |
| Total shares | 2.318 bn |
| 12-month high / low | RMB 66.64 / 24.68 |
Earnings forecast
| Year | Revenue (RMB 100 mn) | Net profit to parent (RMB 100 mn) | EPS (RMB) | P/E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024A | 351.40 | 36.20 | 1.56 | 34.3x |
| 2025A | 391.47 | 37.38 | 1.61 | 33.2x |
| 2026E | 479.04 | 50.64 | 2.18 | 24.5x |
| 2027E | 588.57 | 68.11 | 2.94 | 18.2x |
| 2028E | 749.55 | 89.05 | 3.84 | 14.0x |
Results
FY2025 annual report
- Revenue: 391.47 (RMB 100 mn), +11.40% YoY
- Net profit to parent: 37.38 (RMB 100 mn), +3.25% YoY
- Recurring net profit: 35.34 (RMB 100 mn), +0.08% YoY
- Gross margin: 21.50%, +0.74 ppt YoY
4Q25
- Revenue: 122.92 (RMB 100 mn), +5.47% YoY, +17.28% QoQ
- Net profit to parent: 13.30 (RMB 100 mn), -19.19% YoY, +13.26% QoQ
- Gross margin: 23.38%, +2.02 ppt YoY, +0.30 ppt QoQ
Investment Thesis
1. AI “cloud + device” — premium PCB focus
Smart devices:
- Dynamic-flex FPC for foldables, AI phones, XR supply chain
- AI glasses revenue >+400% YoY — cited as largest global AI-glasses PCB supplier
- Humanoid robotics: advanced PCBs (e.g. main control) in qualification with leading domestic & global customers
AI servers:
- Related revenue doubled YoY; 2026 growth expected to continue
- Advanced HDI aligned with GPU compute
- Co-development on next 2–3 platform generations
Optical comms:
- mSAP volume edge at 800G / 1.6T transitions
- 3.2T in pre-R&D
2. China + Thailand capacity; capex step-up
China:
- Huai’an RMB 8 bn plan for premium PCB capacity
- YE2026: IHDI & HLC capacity to double
- Early 2026: additional RMB 11 bn high-end PCB project signed
Thailand:
- Plant 1 trial production from May 2025 — IHDI, HLC, optical modules
- Ramp + qualification with multiple tier-1 customers
- Plants 2, 3, 5 and drilling hub accelerating
Capex: ~RMB 16.8 bn planned 2026 — Huai’an + Thailand
3. Earnings trajectory
- 2026E net profit 50.64 (RMB 100 mn), +35.5% YoY
- 2027E 68.11 (RMB 100 mn), +34.5% YoY
- 2028E 89.05 (RMB 100 mn), +30.7% YoY
Profitability
| Metric | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin | 20.8% | 21.5% | 21.1% | 22.0% | 22.8% |
| Net margin | 10.3% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 11.9% |
| ROE | 11.2% | 10.7% | 12.7% | 14.9% | 16.5% |
Valuation
| Year | P/E | P/B | EV/EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024A | 34.3x | 3.9x | 16.6x |
| 2025A | 33.2x | 3.6x | 15.7x |
| 2026E | 24.5x | 3.2x | 13.3x |
| 2027E | 18.2x | 2.8x | 9.8x |
| 2028E | 14.0x | 2.3x | 7.5x |
Risks
- U.S.–China tariff / trade policy
- Industry competition
- Slower-than-expected program ramps
Disclaimer: Content is from Kaiyuan Securities, for study only; not investment advice.
