Tongguan Copper Foil (301217.SZ) — Company Comment
Innovation-Led; Positioning for the Copper-Foil Cycle
Key Data Snapshot
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | 301217.SZ |
| Rating | Buy (initial coverage) |
| Report date | March 17, 2026 |
| Last close | RMB 42.44 |
| Total / free-float shares | 829 / 829 million |
| Market cap / free-float | 352 / 352 (RMB 100 mn) |
| 52-week high / low | RMB 49.85 / 8.67 |
| Debt-to-assets | 22.5% |
| Largest shareholder | Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd. |
Earnings Forecast & Valuation
| Metric | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (RMB mn) | 4,719 | 6,547 | 7,320 | 8,112 |
| Growth (%) | 24.69 | 38.74 | 11.80 | 10.82 |
| EBITDA (RMB mn) | -11.11 | 418.94 | 776.90 | 1,043.51 |
| Net profit to parent (RMB mn) | -156.34 | 73.93 | 334.05 | 518.03 |
| Growth (%) | -1,008.97 | 147.29 | 351.85 | 55.08 |
| EPS (RMB) | -0.19 | 0.09 | 0.40 | 0.62 |
| P/S | 7.46 | 5.37 | 4.81 | 4.34 |
| P/B | 6.54 | 6.51 | 6.21 | 5.80 |
| EV/EBITDA | -856.94 | 86.73 | 46.68 | 34.41 |
Investment Thesis
I. Mix & efficiency — sharp earnings swing
2025 profit alert:
- Net profit to parent RMB 55–75 mn
- Turnaround from RMB -156 mn loss
Drivers:
- New capacity online
- Tight RF / high-speed foil supply
- Higher ASP mix and volumes
- Cost-down & margin recovery
II. Process depth; premium foil edge
Industry: High process barriers; premium capacity is the moat.
Company:
- Continuous R&D on core foil know-how
- Leading domestic position in high-frequency / high-speed PCB foil
| Product | Status |
|---|---|
| RTF | 1H25: #1 domestic production & sales scale |
| HVLP1–3 | Mass production; output up YoY |
| HVLP4 | End-customer full qualification testing |
| Carrier foil | Core tech broken through; industrialization in progress |
III. Two engines: PCB foil + battery foil
PCB copper foil: HTE, RTF, HTE-W (halogen-free high-Tg), HVLP — low profile, low loss, controlled impedance for servers, datacenters, radar, and smart infrastructure.
Battery foil: power, consumer, storage — NEVs, e-bikes, 3C, ESS.
IV. Qualifications & sticky accounts
Long-term ties with CCL, PCB, and battery leaders; long qualification cycles → high switching costs.
Flywheel: “Top customers → capability upgrade → brand & share.”
Financial Analysis
Key ratios
| Metric | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | ||||
| Revenue | 24.7% | 38.7% | 11.8% | 10.8% |
| Operating profit | -4,517.4% | 140.9% | 351.8% | 55.1% |
| Net profit | -1,009.0% | 147.3% | 351.8% | 55.1% |
| Profitability | ||||
| Gross margin | -0.6% | 4.3% | 7.6% | 9.4% |
| Net margin | -3.3% | 1.1% | 4.6% | 6.4% |
| ROE | -2.9% | 1.4% | 5.9% | 8.5% |
| ROIC | -2.5% | 1.4% | 5.0% | 7.0% |
| Solvency | ||||
| Debt-to-assets | 22.5% | 28.4% | 30.0% | 30.9% |
| Current ratio | 3.27 | 2.62 | 2.58 | 2.65 |
| Efficiency | ||||
| AR turnover | 4.90 | 4.43 | 4.35 | 4.85 |
| Inventory turnover | 7.73 | 8.48 | 8.20 | 9.34 |
| Asset turnover | 0.68 | 0.90 | 0.94 | 0.96 |
Risks
- Industry & market cycles
- Competition
- Raw material prices
- Technology refresh
Source: China Post Securities Research
