Capcon (688630.SH) — Event Comment
Strong Growth; AI Compute Drives Premium PCB + Advanced Packaging
Key Data Snapshot
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | 688630.SH |
| Rating | Buy (initial) |
| Report date | March 17, 2026 |
| Price | RMB 178.48 |
| Market cap | RMB 23.5 bn |
| Total shares | 132 million |
| Free-float | 132 million |
| 52-week range | RMB 58.22–201.72 |
| Avg daily turnover | RMB 719.21 mn |
Earnings Forecast & Valuation
| Metric | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (RMB mn) | 1,408 | 2,119 | 2,766 | 3,537 |
| Growth (%) | 47.6% | 50.5% | 30.5% | 27.9% |
| Net profit to parent (RMB mn) | 290 | 492 | 643 | 824 |
| Growth (%) | 80.4% | 69.6% | 30.7% | 28.2% |
| Diluted EPS (RMB) | 2.20 | 3.73 | 4.88 | 6.26 |
| ROE (%) | 12.6% | 17.8% | 19.1% | 19.9% |
| P/E | 81.1 | 47.8 | 36.6 | 28.5 |
| P/S | 16.7 | 11.1 | 8.5 | 6.6 |
| P/B | 10.2 | 8.5 | 7.0 | 5.7 |
Investment Thesis
I. AI server capex → premium PCB tools; advanced packaging opens new lithography use cases
Context: AI, cloud, NEVs, and high-end comms are lifting demand for high-layer, HDI, and IC substrate PCBs — requiring tighter process control.
Direct-write (maskless) lithography strengths:
- No photomasks
- High resolution
- Flexible product changeovers
- Stable yield
Maskless tools are displacing part of legacy exposure equipment in premium PCB lines — penetration and TAM both expanding.
Advanced packaging: Fan-out, 2.5D/3D, and WLP flows need micro/nano patterning with stricter accuracy, throughput, and process fit — a new wedge for direct-write platforms.
Localization: Supply-chain restructuring and domestic substitution raise priority on in-house critical equipment — tailwind for local premium tool vendors.
II. Deep lithography IP; broadening “PCB + semiconductor” portfolio
Focus: Micro/nano direct-write lithography systems — among the earlier Chinese suppliers at volume in PCB.
Core building blocks:
- High-resolution imaging
- Multi-beam parallel scanning
- Auto alignment & correction
PCB applications: multilayer, HDI, FPC.
Crossover: Tool lines for advanced packaging, IC substrates, photomask patterning — “PCB + semiconductor” dual engine.
IP (1H25 cumulative): 274 filings/grants — 79 invention patents, 130 utility models, 11 designs, 54 software copyrights.
Technology stack: system integration; UV optics & sources; high-speed autofocus; multi-layer overlay; multi-axis precision motion; ECC stability; high-speed rasterization.
Service: 7×24 support across South/East/Central/North China & Taiwan; fast response & O&M.
Global: Thailand subsidiary as regional hub; Southeast Asia orders firm; exports to Japan, Vietnam, and others.
Financial Appendix
Balance sheet (RMB mn)
| Item | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current assets | ||||
| Cash & equivalents | 475 | 741 | 1,379 | 2,136 |
| Receivables | 967 | 1,161 | 1,137 | 1,163 |
| Inventory | 771 | 736 | 777 | 817 |
| Other current | 451 | 471 | 472 | 481 |
| Current assets total | 2,664 | 3,109 | 3,764 | 4,597 |
| Non-current | ||||
| PPE | 237 | 283 | 323 | 353 |
| CIP | 60 | 60 | 60 | 60 |
| Intangibles | 13 | 22 | 31 | 40 |
| Non-current total | 453 | 508 | 557 | 597 |
| Total assets | 3,117 | 3,617 | 4,321 | 5,194 |
Cash flow (RMB mn)
| Item | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating CF | 92 | 398 | 770 | 884 |
| Investing CF | 123 | -46 | -40 | -31 |
| Financing CF | 51 | -39 | -39 | -37 |
| Net change in cash | 266 | 312 | 692 | 816 |
Key ratios
| Metric | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 47.6% | 50.5% | 30.5% | 27.9% |
| Net profit growth | 80.4% | 69.6% | 30.7% | 28.2% |
| Gross margin | 40.2% | 40.2% | 40.3% | 40.4% |
| Opex / revenue | 17.0% | 15.9% | 15.1% | 15.1% |
| Net margin | 20.6% | 23.2% | 23.2% | 23.3% |
| ROE | 12.6% | 17.8% | 19.1% | 19.9% |
| Debt-to-assets | 25.9% | 23.7% | 22.1% | 20.1% |
| Asset turnover | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| AR turnover | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 3.0 |
| Inventory turnover | 1.1 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.6 |
Risks
- Weaker AI / server capex
- Slower PCB or semiconductor equipment adoption
- Macro / policy shocks
Source: Huaxin Securities Research
