Mindray (300760.SZ) — Earnings Comment
International Revenue 53% of Total; Accelerating Premium Accounts & Local Presence
Key Data Snapshot
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | 300760.SZ |
| Rating | Outperform market (maintain) |
| Report date | April 8, 2026 |
| Closing price | RMB 157.76 |
| Market cap / free-float | 1,912.75 / 1,911.10 (RMB 100 mn) |
| 52-week high / low | RMB 257.00 / 157.36 |
| 3-month avg daily turnover | RMB 1,409.48 mn |
Earnings Forecast & Valuation
| Metric | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (RMB mn) | 36,726 | 33,282 | 36,245 | 39,761 | 43,839 |
| YoY growth (%) | 5.1% | -9.4% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 10.3% |
| Net profit to parent (RMB mn) | 11,668 | 8,136 | 8,328 | 9,428 | 10,759 |
| YoY growth (%) | 0.7% | -30.3% | 2.4% | 13.2% | 14.1% |
| EPS (RMB) | 9.62 | 6.71 | 6.87 | 7.78 | 8.87 |
| EBIT margin (%) | 33.3% | 28.3% | 27.1% | 28.0% | 29.0% |
| ROE (%) | 32.5% | 21.4% | 20.3% | 21.3% | 22.4% |
| P/E | 16.4 | 23.5 | 23.0 | 20.3 | 17.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.3 | 18.9 | 19.0 | 17.0 | 15.1 |
| P/B | 5.33 | 5.02 | 4.66 | 4.32 | 3.98 |
Investment Thesis (Detail)
I. First post-IPO year of revenue & profit decline; China could return to growth in 2026
FY2025:
- Revenue 332.82 (RMB 100 mn), -9.4% YoY
- Net profit 81.36 (RMB 100 mn), -30.3% YoY
4Q25:
- Revenue 74.48 (RMB 100 mn), +2.9% YoY
- Net profit 5.66 (RMB 100 mn), -45.2% YoY
Why weak: Three years of deep adjustment in China medtech; hospitals still under budget pressure — equipment demand only softly recovering.
Outlook:
- China business may turn positive in 2026
- From 2027, potential return to sustained, faster growth
II. International ~53% of sales — core growth engine
- Overseas revenue 176.50 (RMB 100 mn), +7.4% YoY
- International 53% of total
Regions: Europe +17% in 2025 after strong 2024; premium strategic international accounts 15% of international sales.
International push on top-tier accounts and local platforms offsets part of macro drag and buffers China volatility.
III. By segment: IVD now largest line
1. In Vitro Diagnostics — 36.8% of revenue
- Revenue 122.41 (RMB 100 mn), -9.41% YoY
- Largest segment for the second straight year
- ~48% of domestic revenue from IVD
Highlights:
- Domestic MT 8000 total-lab automation: >360 new orders; ~270 new installations
- International MT 8000: 20+ lines — early ramp
Share target: Raise blended domestic share in immuno, clinical chemistry, hemostasis from ~10% to ~20% within 3 years.
IVD has room to gain share; automation lines lift recurring reagent revenue.
2. Patient Monitoring & Life Support — 29.6%
- Revenue 98.37 (RMB 100 mn), -19.8% YoY
- International 74% of segment revenue
Global position: Patient monitors, defibrillators, anesthesia, ventilation — top 3 global share; overseas still below domestic penetration.
International PMLS can grow steadily for years.
Digital: RuiZhi ICU decision support + Qiyuan ICU LLM — 30 hospital sites live.
3. Medical Imaging — 17.2%
- Revenue 57.17 (RMB 100 mn), -18.02% YoY
- International 65% of segment
Premium ultrasound: flagship series >RMB 700 mn revenue in year two, >70% YoY growth.
China: #1 share; premium / ultra-premium ~70% of domestic ultrasound revenue.
Imaging led by premium mix; international ultrasound still single-digit share — runway overseas and in China premium tier.
4. Emerging businesses — 16.2% — strategic growth driver
- Revenue 53.78 (RMB 100 mn), +38.85% YoY
- International emerging ~+30% YoY
- Domestic emerging >20% of domestic total
Scope: EP, coronary & peripheral; expanding urology, GI, OB/GYN, respiratory intervention.
Surgical robotics: platform in place; laparoscopy, energy devices, instruments commercialized with solid IP.
Vet med: ~80% of revenue overseas.
Minimally invasive surgery & intervention are key future drivers.
IV. Profitability: margins under pressure
- 2025 gross margin 60.3%, -2.8 ppt YoY
| Expense ratio | 2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Sales | 15.5% | +1.1 ppt |
| G&A | 4.7% | +0.3 ppt |
| R&D | 10.8% | +0.8 ppt |
| Finance | -0.8% | +0.3 ppt |
R&D intensity 10.8%.
- Net margin 25.4%, -6.6 ppt YoY
Cash flow: Operating CF 101.4 (RMB 100 mn), -18.4% YoY; CF / net profit 125% — still healthy.
V. Digitalization: from boxes to ecosystems
RuiZhi ecosystem: >1,000 domestic hospitals cumulative; >170 new 2025 projects; ~40 new tier-3 hospitals.
Mindray intelligent lab: ~1,100 national installs, ~80% tier-3; >500 new in 2025.
RuiYing imaging ecosystem: national coverage; >20,100 cumulative installs; ~4,500 new in 2025.
Five-layer digital strategy:
- Foundational technology
- Device fusion
- Connected devices
- Qiyuan AI / LLM ecosystem
- Embodied AI (current focus)
Forward: dark labs, intelligent anesthesia / ultrasound / surgery robots — closed-loop clinical AI.
Digital leadership may redefine China medtech globally.
VI. Cash & dividends
- YE2025 cash 176.90 (RMB 100 mn)
- 2025 cash dividend 53.10 (RMB 100 mn) (gross); 65.27% of profit
Investment view
- China growth may resume 2026; international can re-accelerate
- Themes: IVD share-up; imaging premiumization; PMLS recovery; emerging MIS; digital platforms
- Forecast: Trimmed 2026–27; added 2028E — net profit 83.28 / 94.28 / 107.59 (RMB 100 mn); YoY 2.4% / 13.2% / 14.1%
- Valuation: 23.0 / 20.3 / 17.8x P/E on current price
Rating: Maintain Outperform market.
Risks
- Policy — procurement rules
- FX — large international mix
- Geopolitics — overseas expansion
- China tenders — hospital budget risk
Comparable valuation
| Code | Company | Price (Apr 7, 2026) | Mkt cap (RMB 100 mn) | 2026E EPS | 2026E P/E | ROE | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 300760 | Mindray | 157.76 | 1,913 | 6.87 | 23.0 | 22% | Outperform |
| 688271 | United Imaging | 109.60 | 903 | 2.88 | 38.1 | 9% | Outperform |
| 300832 | Snibe | 46.68 | 367 | 2.55 | 18.3 | 23% | Outperform |
| 300633 | Sonoscape | 25.12 | 109 | 0.92 | 27.4 | 5% | Outperform |
Mindray trades mid-pack vs. peers; leadership + globalization support the case.
Source: Guosen Securities Economic Research Institute
